It was meant to be a swift military victory. Several days after Russian tanks rolled onto Ukrainian territory, the Federal Security Service (FSB) was to help impose a new pro-Kremlin puppet government in Kyiv. Nevertheless, forecasts by Putin’s spies soon proved to be overly optimistic.

The war not only compromised Russia’s army and history. It also destroyed hopes for Russia’s future. For years Kremlin propaganda had said the technology would fix the country’s corrupt and inefficient bureaucracy. The authorities invested heavily in the digitalization of the economy and state management (not least a state-of-the-art surveillance state.)

The mood among Russia’s special forces and the FSB began to change dramatically in the fall, when Russian troops abandoned Kherson, suffering the latest of many humiliations for the Russian army. Suddenly, the social media channels we use to communicate with our contacts began to change, as images of religious icons flooded in, along with prayers for the victory of the Russian army and calls to pray for soldiers on the battlefield. 

Since Putin’s plan to win a short military war in Ukraine has visibly failed, Russia is getting  ready to wage a long and devastating war in Ukraine. To do so, it must adjust the economy to the new conditions and increase weapons production.

In the Kremlin food chain, assassins are more valuable than spies, while both are expected to persecute émigrés.

Generations of Russians schooled during and after the Soviet Union were taught that Russia’s imperial expansion took place peacefully. In this version of history, Russia was always reacting to western aggression. Sound familiar?

Below is the foreword to the recently released paperback edition.

When Russia’s government machine cannot deliver, Vladimir Putin is increasingly reliant on a tried and trusted fixer to do the job.

The Kremlin is building its network of domestic surveillance technology and quietly mobilizing the public administration to deal with “troublemakers” at home.

The bloody assault helped shape Putin’s regime and the public response to difficult truths.

Russia’s ruler is using increasingly ruthless tactics to keep possible opponents off-balance, including senior members of the elite.

The Kremlin has done everything possible to seal off Russian citizens from independent news media, and it’s failing.

Russian troops are using social media channels to discuss the war, despite potentially punitive punishments. The Kremlin won’t like it.

Vladimir Putin has removed Russia’s biggest intelligence agency, the FSB, from its role as the primary spy agency for the war in Ukraine and handed responsibility to the GRU.

The security institutions, the ‘siloviki’, that are key to propping up the regime are exchanging recriminations for a growing list of failures in the war on Ukraine.

The Kremlin pretends that strong personal relationships are a mark of Russia’s president. That’s not really true.

Faced with the brutal economic consequences of its war of choice, the Kremlin is falling back on old-style communist-era policies.

Russia has decided to re-make the global order to its own liking.

Who does Vladimir Putin listen to, and why? The answer shines a light on the Russian decision-making machine, especially on sensitive topics like Ukraine and NATO.

Authoritarian Olympics, like the Beijing Winter games starting on February 4, are an exercise in feel-good nationalism. Until the final payment demand arrives.

Russia and Ukraine are in the midst of a bloody physical and intellectual divorce; liberal intellectuals are the despondent victims.

A cabal of KGB operatives stationed in Arab countries and Israel took over Russian foreign intelligence at the end of the Cold War. Their impact is still felt.